Phoenix Stakes 2024 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 2, $350,000 Phoenix Stakes will be run at Keeneland on Friday, October 4, 2024, and this is Win & You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The eight entrants will travel six furlongs on the main track and Nakatomi is the 7-5 morning line favorite. The Phoenix goes as the seventh race on opening day of the fall meet with a scheduled post time of 4:12 p.m. EDT.

Phoenix Stakes Analysis (Top 4 Selections)

#1 Federal Judge (3-1) won his first two dirt sprints last year including a romping optional-claiming victory under Friday’s rider Flavien Prat second time out. He faded to fourth in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens and disappeared for more than a year. He resurfaced in an extended sprint at Saratoga on July 20, and he set the pace and held the place as the beaten favorite for his new trainer Brad Cox. He was the favorite again on Aug. 31 and he ran away from the pack at 6 1/2 furlongs that day. He earned an improved number last time and should impact the pace from the inside post.

#4 Nakatomi (7-5) is 3-for-5 at Keeneland and he was the runner-up as the favorite in this race last fall. Since that event, he landed the show in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), Pelican, and Dubai Golden Shaneen (G1), and he exits a win in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt. He sports back-to-back local bullets for this and he usually fires trifecta shots at this distance.

#5 Comedy Town (4-1) moved to dirt and won his last three starts at Gulfstream Park including back-to-back stakes wins on July 6 and Aug. 24 under Drayden Van Dyke. His connections chose this spot over last weekend’s Vosburgh (G3) at seven panels. I like his early-pressing versatility and his uncoupled stablemate Swirvin (blinkers on) might be in here to ensure honest splits.

#2 Here Mi Song (6-1) was part of the exacta in all four local starts. He won two stakes races last year including the local Grade 3 Commonwealth. He romped in a stakes race at Ellis Park in July, and exits a clear show finish in a dirt sprint stakes race under the Twin Spires. He owns competitive speed ratings and projects a stalking trip. 

Phoenix Stakes Video