Oak Leaf Stakes 2024 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 2, $200,000 Oak Leaf Stakes will be run at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, October 5, 2024, and this is Win & You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The eight entrants will travel 1 1/16 miles on the main track and this is a Kentucky Oaks 2025 points race. The Oak Leaf goes as the third race on Saturday with a scheduled post time of 5:00 p.m. EDT.

Oak Leaf Analysis (Top 4 selections)

#8 Non Compliant (2-1) stalked from the inside post and looked professional in her debut sprint win by a length and a half at Del Mar on Aug. 31 and the runner-up was 9 lengths clear of the show finisher. This $150k Tiz the Law filly retains the services of Juan Hernandez and she is a logical contender if she handles two turns. She might work out a great tactical trip behind her stablemate Nooni.

#3 Tenma (5-2) got up late in both dirt sprints including a nose victory in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). Bob Baffert’s $850k Nyquist filly acts like she will handle two turns. She puts blinkers on and will try to get involved from off the pace under her winning rider Kazushi Kimura.

#4 Nooni (3-1) earned decent numbers in her first two sprint wins and folded as the chalk in the Del Mar Debutante. Martin Garcia used to win races with this barn and she has a shot if she makes the lead and relaxes on the front end.

#5 In the Air Tonight (5-1) is a California-bred filly taking on open company for the first time. She got up by a nose in her local sprint debut, and took the overland route from the outside post in a visually impressive victory as my top choice in the CTBA Stakes at Del Mar second time out. She rallied to finish a clear second in the Generous Portion last time, and Steve Knapp shows a profit with his first route starters. She is talented enough to get a piece of the purse.  

Oak Leaf Video