California Crown 2024 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 1, $1 million California Crown will be run at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, September 28, 2024, and this is Win & You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The seven entrants will travel a mile and an eighth on the main track and National Treasure is the 8-5 morning line favorite. The California Crown goes as the ninth race on the California Crown program with a scheduled post time of 7:43 p.m. EDT.

California Crown Analysis

#5 Muth (2-1) is 5-for-7 with two runner-up finishes, and he is 3-for-4 with a second at Santa Anita and 1-for-1 at a mile and an eighth. Last year, he was second in the Best Pal (G3), first in the Grade 1 American Pharoah, and second in the BC Juvenile (G1). He started 2024 with a win in the San Vicente (G2), and followed that up with another victory in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. He shipped to Pimlico and was the Preakness (G1) favorite, but he got sick shortly after arriving in Baltimore and was forced to scratch. The Sept. 1 Shared Belief Stakes was his first outing in 155 days. Pony Express was intent on the lead and Muth chased from second. Bob Baffert’s strong favorite put away Pony Express and got a fresh challenge from his stablemate Imagination. He put that one away as well and won by two lengths under Juan Hernandez. I am expecting him to chase from second under Hernandez, and I would not be surprised if he won this race. His Today’s Racing Digest Final Time Rating pattern is promising. He is slowly moving forward and might be all set for a new top on Saturday.

#3 National Treasure (8-5) is probably the one to catch. He stole the Grade 1 Preakness in 2023 and set the pace and just failed to hold off Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish in the BC Dirt Mile (G1). He stalked, got clear, and held off Señor Buscador by a neck in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup on Jan. 27. He was 4th of 14 in the Saudi Cup (G1), and cut back and romped in the Grade 1 Met Mile on June 8. He was the favorite in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga last time but he failed to handle the wet footing and finished up the track. His winning rider Flavien Prat stays put and he could easily bounce back with a win on fast ground.

#2 Subsanador (5-1) shipped to Monmouth Park and looked good rallying for the win in the Grade 3 Iselin as the 3-2 favorite on Aug. 17. He set a controlled tempo and just missed in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) earlier this year, and he might offer a hint of value in this spot for the productive Mike Smith/Richard Mandella team.

California Crown Wagers

#5 to win

Exacta 5-3

Trifecta 3-5/2-3-5/2-3-5

California Crown Video