Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 2024 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 1, $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile will be run at Del Mar on Friday, November 1, 2024. The ten juvenile males will travel 1 1/16 miles on the main track and East Avenue is the 5-2 morning line favorite. The BC Juvenile goes as the ninth race on Friday with a scheduled post time of 7:45 p.m. EDT.

BC Juvenile field: 1 – East Avenue (5-2), 2 – Getaway Car (20-1), 3 – Hill Road (30-1), 4 – Ferocious (6-1), 5 – Jonathan’s Way (9-2), 6 – Citizen Bull (10-1), 7 – Gaming (8-1), 8 – Shin Believe (10-1), 9 – Ecoro Azel (30-1), 10 – Chancer McPatrick (3-1)

BC Juvenile Analysis

#1 East Avenue (5-2) was strong in his slow early/fast late wire job six furlong bow at Ellis Park Aug. 24. He had to run faster to make the lead as my top choice in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland Oct. 5 and he was excellent throughout that day. He has never been tested at any point and might be better than these at this stage. Is he the controlling speed from the rail? He might be because Getaway Car removed blinkers and rated last time, Jonathan’s Way and Citizen Bull wired the field through below par splits in their last stakes wins, and Gaming wired the field in his bow and rated in the Del Mar Futurity.

#10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1) packs a big late kick for Chad Brown. Flavien Prat was aboard in all three starts and he went last-to-first twice (MSW, G1 Champagne), and rallied from 8th in a 9-horse field in the Grade 1 Hopeful. The McKinzie colt tries two turns and will try to get involved late. 

#7 Gaming (8-1) is a good one for Bob Baffert. The $250k Game Winner colt is 2-for-2. He wired the field as the chalk in his 6.5 furlong debut at Del Mar and stalked and scored as my top choice in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, and the horses behind him ran 1-2-3 in the Grade 1 American Pharoah. He skipped the latter race and stretches out after two sprints.  

#5 Jonathan’s Way (9-2) is versatile. He had an uncomfortable start and rallied strongly to break his maiden by more than four lengths in his six furlong bow at Saratoga. He made the lead and kept on finding as my top choice in the Grade 3 Iroquois last time (one turn mile). Phil Bauer’s $290k Vekoma colt has more of a sprint-oriented pedigree. 

BC Juvenile Wagers

#1 to win

Exacta 1/5-7-10

Exacta 5-7-10/1

Trifecta 1-10/1-5-7-10/1-5-7-10

Superfecta key 1/5-7-10

BC Juvenile Video