So You Think You Can Beat This Handicapping Game?

Commentary by Rod Young of Turfdom

So You Think You Can Beat This Game? Well if you do, you are living in a fantasy world and not in touch with reality. I’m probably not the right person to be writing this paragraph as most of my income from racing comes from selling my selections, but this game today is far different from what it has been in the past. And it doesn’t matter which pool you are putting your money in, especially in California where they are crying for more handle just to stay afloat.

The only way to beat this game today is to join the Computer Assisted Wagering groups if you can find one that will let you in. They continue to wreak havoc with all of the pools with last second wagering which drastically changes the odds in all of the pools they are allowed to play in, and in California that is everything. Only New York has taken a firm stance against these groups where they are not allowed in the Pick 6, the late Pick 5, and the Cross Country Pick 5. They also require these groups to place their WIN bets three minutes prior to post time in order to not drastically change the odds after the horses have sprung the gate. That’s fine and dandy, but that’s the only place in the country where there has been any opposition to the CAW players.

When these CAW groups make up to 30% of a track’s daily handle, it’s pretty hard to get too tough with your biggest customers. And that’s what’s happening throughout the country with both large tracks and small tracks. And to top it all off, they are not even looking for winners. They are only paying an average of 9% for the signal from the track, where everyone else is paying 24% on multi race wagers. Even if they lose 10% on all of their wagers, they are still ahead of the game by 5%, which means their major goal is not to win like you and I, it’s just to win enough to stay ahead of the take out difference. That’s a huge advantage and I don’t care how good of a handicapper you are, you can’t compete with those kinds of opponents in pari-mutuel wagering.

I had a Best Bet that I played on Monday in race six at Santa Anita that was 4/1 when the gates closed. He probably was not the best horse in the race, but he was the best “value” horse of the contenders. He won with a 6% rider at the meet, Abel Lezcano, and paid $7.20. That is a 30% difference to the bottom line and losing that 30% over a period of time will put you in the red, especially with the 15.64% that California has for the WIN takeout pool. Only in New York would your wager have returned $10 and change had you waited until the last minute to place your bet.

One cannot find “value” in any pool when you can’t trust the odds that are staring you in the face on the tote board. Some tracks are listing projected odds based on other pools to assist you in knowing what your final odds will be, but they are so inaccurate, it is a waste of time to even look at them. It’s like walking into a casino to play poker. Once they take the take out from the hands and along with the shills they place at the tables, you have very little chance of winning. Sure you will get lucky now and then, but over time they will take your money.

The answer at the tracks is “Fixed Odds Wagering” where you can get your price at any time prior to post, but it seems like that the American tracks are deathly scared of getting involved, even though it has proven successful in both England and Australia and the customer has the option for both types of wagers. Good players are walking away from the game because the odds are stacked against them, and that includes the “whales” that know how to push money through the system. For the rest of us, just enjoy the game while you can, and don’t look to make too much money at it. Take your victories when they present themselves to you, even if they are smaller than what you projected.