Breeders’ Cup Classic 2024 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 1, $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic will be run at Del Mar on Saturday, November 2, 2024. The fourteen entrants will travel 1 1/4 miles on the main track and City of Troy is the 5-2 morning line favorite. The BC Classic goes as the eighth race on Saturday with a scheduled post time of 5:41 p.m. EDT.

Breeders’ Cup Classic 2024 field: 1 – Forever Young (6-1), 2 – Highland Falls (20-1), 3 – City of Troy (5-2), 4 – Mixto (30-1), 5 – Senor Buscador (30-1), 6 – Derma Sotogake (20-1), 7 – Ushba Tesoro (12-1), 8 – Pyrenees (30-1), 9 – Fierceness (3-1), 10 – Tapit Trice (30-1), 11 – Sierra Leone (12-1), 12 – Arthur’s Ride (15-1), 13 – Newgate (20-1), 14 – Next (8-1), 15 – Rattle N Roll (30-1).

BC Classic Analysis

#1 Forever Young (6-1) spiked a fever during a workout Sept. 25 and was likely not 100% when he returned to the races Oct. 2, but he ran his record to 6-for-7 regardless in a solid 1 1/4-length victory in the Japan Dirt Classic mile at 1 1/4 miles (final time 2:04.10). He stalked the pace and edged clear, his first start since finishing a close third in the Ky Derby in May. Earlier this year, he won the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2). The Classic distance is not an issue and he is a 3-year-old with upside. The key to his success might be the start. He has a decent shot if he has a clean beginning and stays within hailing distance of the early leaders.  

#2 Highland Falls (20-1) loses his winning Jockey Club Gold Cup rider Flavien Prat to Sierra Leone. Whitney hero Arthur’s Ride made the lead in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but Prat aboard Highland Falls pressed the issue under aggressive handling. Brad Cox’s colt put away the favorite and won by 4 lengths. The interior fractions were 24.42, 23.64, 24.88, and the final 1/4 was run in a pedestrian 27.06. The final time was 2:03.25 and this was the slowest Jockey Club Gold Cup since it was shortened from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles in 1990. That race was moved to Saratoga in 2021. Luis Saez will ride and the versatile sort can impact the pace if he is ridden aggressively like he was last time. I think he is a cut below the top contenders in this race. Brad Cox won the BC Classic in 2021 (Knicks Go) and is 10-for-38 overall with his Cup starters.  

#3 City of Troy (5-2) is a 6-for-7 turf specialist for Aidan O’Brien and he is a 4-time Group 1 winner (three straight G1 wins). He had a well-publicized team gallop out of the gate at Southwell and he had a clean start, relaxed nicely, and rallied to dominate his four overmatched stablemates. O’Brien also used a Southwell gallop to prepare his 2000 BC Classic entrant Giant’s Causeway and he stalked the pace and Tiznow beat him by a neck that year. This one has been targeting the Classic for months and his Triple Crown-winning sire Justify was responsible for two BC juvenile race winners in 2023 (Hard to Justify, Just F Y I). O’Brien knows how to prepare a horse for the BC and he can definitely win this race if he handles dirt, but the barn is 0-for-17 in the Classic.  

#4 Mixto’s (30-1) biggest positive is his Grade 1 Pacific Classic victory at the venue, course, and distance of this race, but that was one of the weakest renewals of Del Mar’s big summer race. Prior to the Pacific Classic, he was 0-for-8 in the stakes ranks and was still eligible for an entry level allowance event. He probably crashes back to earth and finishes up the track.   

#5 Senor Buscador (30-1) will probably be last early and might have to pass them all, and that is an unlikely scenario for several reasons including his recent suspect form. He has back class and would probably be in the mix for a minor award on his best day, but I cannot play him in this race. 

#6 Derma Sotogake (20-1) landed the place in the 2023 BC Classic as a sophomore but has not improved from age 3 to 4. He won the Grade 2 UAE Derby (March 2023) and is 0-for-5 since. In a trio of 2024 starts, he was 5th in the Saudi Cup, 6th in the Dubai World Cup, and 5th in the Nippon TV Hai (Sept. 25). I like his stalking speed and he is not completely out of this if he runs his best race, but his form this year does not cut it vs. this group.  

#7 Ushba Tesoro (12-1) is a classy late running 7-year-old shipper from Japan. He won the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup in 2023 and finished 5th in the BC Classic last year. He raced three times this year and rallied for the place in the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup. He captured the Nippon TV Hai last year and was 2nd in that race in his final prep for this Sept. 25.

#8 Pyrenees (30-1) has not finished out of the trifecta since October 2022. He rattled off four straight wins from December 2023 through his winning stakes debut in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special (5-17-24). He landed the place in his last two starts in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and I can see Cherie DeVaux’s improving, consistent colt hitting the board in the Classic under Brian Hernandez Jr., but I am not using him. He has been working fast at Keeneland. 

#9 Fierceness (3-1) might be the fastest horse on paper and all of his big wins were carbon copies. In the 2023 BC Juvenile, he pressed 19-1 longshot General Partner through moderate fractions from post 7, and he took over and won by 6 1/4 lengths. He controlled the pace from post 8 in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and romped by 13 1/2 lengths. He chased 25-1 longshot Pony Express through moderate splits from the outside post in the Jim Dandy (G2), and he held off Sierra Leone by a length. In the Grade 1 Travers, he stalked 29-1 longshot Batten Down through moderate splits from the outside post and got the jump on Thorpedo Anna, and he won by a head with Sierra Leone less than 2 lengths back in third. He might be able to get into a comfortable early-pressing rhythm through controlled splits from post 9. He is vulnerable if the pace is solid and he cannot get in the clear. Here is an interesting stat. BC Juvenile winners have never won the BC Classic. It was attempted eight times and the best finish was a third by Essential Quality in 2021.   

#10 Tapit Trice (30-1) won half of his 12 starts. He was my Derby horse in 2023 and he finished 7th that day. He was 3rd in the Belmont and Travers, and started 2024 with a big win in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup. He was a flat 4th in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and bounced back with a wet track win in the Grade 2 Woodward. His last three graded wins were at 1 1/8 miles and he is 0-for-3 at a mile and a quarter. 

#11 Sierra Leone (12-1) is one of the fastest and most consistent performers in this race, and he continues to get more professional after having issues with lugging in earlier this year. The consistent closer won the Grade 2 Risen Star and Grade 1 Blue Grass prior to missing by a nose in the Kentucky Derby. He would have won the Derby if he maintained a straight course, and after that race, Chad Brown changed riders (Gaffalione to Prat) and adjusted equipment (changed bits). He got the wrong setup over a speed favoring track in the Belmont Stakes (3rd), and he was second in the Jim Dandy and third in the Travers. His last three starts were at Saratoga and Brown believes that he is not as effective on that surface, plus the race flow was against him in those races. Brown kept tinkering with his equipment after the Belmont and he seems to have everything in place now. He has been working solo in recent months due to his maturity and he is a logical Classic win contender if the track plays fair and the pace is honest.  

#12 Arthur’s Ride (15-1) can carry his speed 1 1/4 miles under the right circumstances and he does not need to control the pace through soft fractions. He stretched out to two turns for the first time and earned a big number in a romping victory in a optional-claiming victory at 1 1/4 miles June 7, and backed that up with another fast front running win in the Grade 1 Whitney at 1 1/8 miles on a wet track Aug. 3. He set a fast pace in the Whitney. He was the chalk in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but could not cope with pace pressure from Highland Falls and he caved. The pace ratings were below par but the pace was contested and he wilted. Bill Mott has saddled two BC Classic winners (Cigar, Drosselmeyer). His best shot is to get clear early and go fast on the lead and try to run them off their feet. 

#13 Newgate (20-1) won the Grade 1 Big ‘Cap at this distance in March. He shipped to Meydan for the Dubai World Cup and he finished 9th. He disappeared for about half a year and resurfaced in the Grade 1 California Crown at 1 1/8 miles Sept. 28, and he stalked and finished a close third. He can go better in his second start after a layoff for Bob Baffert (4 BC Classic wins), but he will need to elevate his game to compete with these.  

#14 Next (8-1) has been dominating dirt marathon stakes horses since September 2022 (Cape Henlopen Stakes). He is 9-for-10 with a show finish in his last ten stakes starts and he usually wins big. He is just getting warmed up at this distance and he meets a deep, salty cast, and the far outside post is no bargain. 

AE: 

#15 Rattle N Roll (30-1) returned from a long layoff and ran on for the show in the Lukas Classic (G2) in the slop Sept. 28. He won the Ben Ali (G3) at Keeneland last year, and also captured the Pimlico Special (G3) and Blame (G3) in 2023, and was a close second in the Stephen Foster (G1). He tailed off in two stakes routes after that and went to the sidelines for a year. He is a decent sort but there are better closers in this race. 

BC Classic Video