Alabama Stakes 2024 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes will be run at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, August 17, 2024. Eight sophomore fillies will travel 1 1/4 miles on the main track and Candied is the 7-5 morning line favorite. The Alabama goes as the tenth race with a scheduled post time of 5:43 p.m. EDT.

Alabama Historical Trends: 2011-2023

Todd Pletcher – 4 Alabama wins since 2011

Favorites in Alabama since 2011: (13 7-2-2)

Final prep at Saratoga since 2011 – 23 Top 3 finishes in Alabama (10  wins)

Key Alabama prep – Coaching Club American Oaks – 9 winners in last 13 years exited that race 

Alabama Stakes Analysis

Candied showed promise as a 2-year-old for Todd Pletcher with a victory in the Alcibiades (G1) and a solid show finish in the BC Juvenile Fillies (G1). She got a late start this year. She split an 8-horse field as the overbet favorite in her needed Ashland (G1) return on April 5, and got class relief and dominated the Lady’s Secret as the strong favorite on June 8. She was no match for overwhelming betting choice Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), and she was clearly second best in a respectable effort that day. She is fast enough to win this but might not offer much value. She drew the rail in her last four starts and will break near the outside this time.

Miss Justify is getting faster for Todd Pletcher. She dueled and kicked away to win an optional-claiming race at Gulfstream Park on June 1, and relaxed behind strong fractions and got up late to win the local Wilton by a length at one mile on July 12. Flavien Prat can place her anywhere and she might sit in second behind likely pacesetter Chatalas. She can win this if she is able to handle the added ground of this race, but her pedigree does not scream 1 1/4 miles.

Intricate beat Thorpedo Anna in the Golden Rod (G2) last fall and she is the only runner to ever finish in front of Ken McPeek’s talented filly. This year has been nothing but frustration. She was second in the Rachel Alexandra (G2), a bad 5th in the FG Oaks (G2), second in the Monomoy Girl, and a clear 3rd of 4 in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). The closer has not gotten the right setups this year and the added distance might work better for her in this spot. 

Just Basking is on the upswing for Ian Wilkes and she proved that she could handle a mile and a quarter in a romping maiden win at Churchill Downs on April 27. She dominated the Iowa Oaks from off the pace on July 6 and the daughter of Arrogate just might stay the distance better than the others.

Alabama Wagering Strategies

Exacta 1-4-6/7

Trifecta key 7/1-4-6

Trifecta 7/1-4-6/all

Trifecta 7/all/1-4-6