Kentucky Derby 2024 Update (4-23-24)

By Jarrod Horak

All of the points races have been run and the Kentucky Derby 2024 contenders are gathering under the Twin Spires for final workouts and preparations. In this article, I will catch up with the latest Derby news and update my “Exceptional 11” Kentucky Derby contenders. 

Deterministic is out of the race. Christophe Clement’s lightly raced colt finished up the track as the beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial on April 6. He breezed five panels in 1:02.63 (11/19) at Belmont Park (training track) on April 21. The Grade 3 Peter Pan at Aqueduct on May 11 is a possible target. 

Grand Mo the First got in after Deterministic dropped out. The Uncle Mo colt breezed six panels in 1:16.46 (2/2) at Gulfstream Park on April 23. Emisael Jaramillo will ride.  

Jose Ortiz will ride Florida Derby runner-up Catalytic in the Kentucky Derby for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.  

Danny Gargan trainee Society Man gets the services of Frankie Dettori in the Derby. He exits a runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at 106-1.  

Kentucky Derby 2024 Points Race Results

Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 16 – Winner: West Saratoga ($26.96)

Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Timberlake ($11.80)

American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Muth ($2.80)

Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Locked ($3.52)

Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 29 – Winner: Liberal Arts ($14.18)

BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 3 – Winner: Fierceness ($35.00)

Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 25 – Winner: Honor Marie ($19.62)

Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 3 – Winner: Dornoch ($5.40)

Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 15 – Winner: Otto the Conqueror ($4.80)

Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 16 – Winner: Wynstock ($29.40)

Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 23 – Winner: Track Phantom ($11.80)

Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 1- Winner: Catching Freedom ($5.40)

Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 6 – Winner: Drum Roll Please ($3.20)

Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 20 – Winner: Track Phantom ($4.80)

Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Uncle Heavy ($20.60)

Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Winner: Nysos ($2.20) 

Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Winner: Mystik Dan ($24.80)

Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Winner: Hades ($20.20)

Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 10 – Winner: No More Time ($8.60)

Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 17 – Winner: Sierra Leone ($7.40)

Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 18 – Winner: Stronghold ($4.40)

Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 24 – Winner: Timberlake ($3.60)

Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 2 – Winner: Dornoch ($2.40)

Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 2 – Winner: Deterministic ($9.80)

John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – March 2 – Winner: Encino ($13.38)

San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 2 – Winner: Imagination ($3.80) 

Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 9 – Winner: Domestic Product (non-wagering event)

Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 23 – Winner: Endlessly ($4.88)

Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 23 – Winner: Catching Freedom ($8.60)

Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 30 – Winner: Fierceness ($4.20)

UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 30 – Winner: Forever Young ($3.20)

Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 30 – Winner: Muth ($6.60)

Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 6 – Winner: Sierra Leone ($5.32) 

SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 6 – Winner: Stronghold ($6.40)

Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 6 – Winner: Resilience ($11.00)

Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 13 – Winner: Encino ($8.62)

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Top 24 Kentucky Derby 2024 Points Leaders (thru 4-23-24)

T O Password (Japan Qualifier)

Sierra Leone (155 points)

Fierceness (136 points)

Catching Freedom, Stronghold (125 points)

Resilience (110 Points)

Forever Young, Endlessly (100 points)

Dornoch, Just a Touch (75 points)

Track Phantom (70 points)

West Saratoga (67 points)

Just Steel, Honor Marie (65 points)

Domestic Product (60 points)

Catalytic, Society Man (50 points)

Mystik Dan (46 points)

Encino (40 points)

Grand Mo the First (40 points)

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Epic Ride (35 points)

Uncle Heavy (30 points)

Seize the Grey (27 points)

Le Dom Bro (25 points)

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2024 Contenders (4-23-24)

1 – Sierra Leone (Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Chad Brown –  Last Ranking (1)

Comments: He has been my number one Derby contender since early February. Everything about this one screams Derby winner. The $2.3 million purchase is 3-for-4 with a nose defeat. He won both graded starts this year at a mile and an eighth (G2 Risen Star, G1 Blue Grass), and he is getting faster and should relish a mile and a quarter. He was strong in his first breeze since the Blue Grass. He traveled a half-mile in 48.80 (19/127) at Keeneland on April 20 and was full of energy on the gallop out. Fierceness might have his hands full in the Derby if this powerful closer gets the right trip and setup.     

2 – Fierceness (City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (2)

Comments: He is the fastest horse in the paper race, and it is all over if he duplicates his Florida Derby romp on the first Saturday in May. Todd Pletcher’s City of Light colt continues to look the part in his morning activity. He has worked twice since the Florida Derby including a five panel bullet in 1:00.50 (1/5) on April 19. The likely Derby favorite arrived at Churchill Downs on April 22. 

3 – Just a Touch (Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (5)

Comments: He continues to rapidly climb the rankings. I played him in the Gotham (G3) second time out and thought he ran well in a solid runner-up finish. He moved up in the Grade 1 Blue Grass on April 6. He chased from second, led, and was clearly second best behind Sierra Leone. The Justify colt was unraced as a 2-year-old and is all upside. He breezed a half-mile in 48.20 (16/123) at Churchill Downs on April 20.  

4 – Catching Freedom (Constitution – Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (3)

Comments: This one is steady. In three stakes starts this year, he was first in the Smarty Jones, third in the Risen Star (G2), and first in the LA Derby (G2). He can close from far back or sit in midpack and pounce, and that versatility gives Flavien Prat options. He has breezed three times at Churchill since the LA Derby. He traveled five panels in 1:00.80 (20/71) on April 20. 

5 – Forever Young (Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats) – Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi – Last Ranking (4)

Comments: The unbeaten Japanese star is on the grounds at Churchill Downs. He arrived at Churchill on April 13 and is acclimating to his new surroundings. His trainer saddled two BC winners (Loves Only You, Marche Lorraine), and this one has won races in Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Dubai. He will have his first Derby work later this week.  

6 – Stronghold (Ghostzapper – Spectator, by Jimmy Creed) – Trainer: Phil D’Amato –  Last Ranking (6)

Comments: I have been a fan of the SA Derby (G1) hero for quite some time. His tactical speed often leads to trouble-free trips, and the consistent colt continues to get faster. He drilled a half-mile bullet in 46.60 (1/71) at Santa Anita on April 20 and was full of himself. 

7 – Honor Marie (Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike) – Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman –  Last Ranking (7)

Comments: I will probably be using the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club hero underneath in the Derby exotics. He exits a rallying runner-up finish in the LA Derby (G2) and might be set for his best effort in his third start of the year. He breezed a half-mile in 48.80 (24/77) at Churchill on April 14. Ben Curtis will retain the mount. 

8 – Domestic Product (Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter) – Trainer: Chad Brown –  Last Ranking (8)

Comments: Has not raced since winning a slow early/fast late edition of the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 9. He has been more relaxed in his races since removing blinkers this year. He has worked five times since his last start and fired bullets on two occasions. His last move was a half-mile in 48.40 (3/37) at Payson Park on April 20. 

9 – Resilience (Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (10)

Comments: Added blinkers, stalked the pace from the inside post, and won a weak renewal of the Wood Memorial (G2) by 2 1/4 lengths on April 6. He returned to work with an easy half-mile move in 50.20 (12/18) at Churchill on April 18, and was back four days later with a five panel drill in 1:01.60 (10/12). I like his tactical speed and Mott is an outstanding trainer, but he is probably a cut below the top contenders.  

10 – Just Steel (Justify – Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock) – Trainer: Wayne Lukas –  Last Ranking (9)

Comments: This one never misses a beat. He is the most experienced runner in the field with eleven starts. You know what you are going to get from this professional. He will go out there and run his usual race stalking the pace, and he can be in the mix for a minor award if other highly regarded runners falter. He worked a flat mile in 1:40.00 (1/1) at Churchill Downs on April 20. 

11 – Track Phantom (Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) – Trainer: Steve Asmussen –  Last Ranking (11)

Comments: He is repeating his LA Derby workout routine. Prior to finishing fourth in that race on March 23, he worked on March 3, skipped his next breeze, and worked again on March 16. Since arriving at Churchill Downs, he breezed on April 7, failed to work on April 14, and breezed 5f in 1:00.80 (6/32) on April 21. He should be a pace factor in the Derby but lost ground in his last two stakes starts at a mile and an eighth and 1 3/16 miles. 

Next Nine: 

(12) Mystik Dan – 5f bullet in 59.40 (1/71) at CD on April 20. 

(13) Dornoch – 4f in 48.20 (16/123) at CD on April 20.

(14) West Saratoga – 6f in 1:16.20 (1/1) at KEE on April 19.

(15) Encino – No works since winning G3 Lexington on April 13. 

(16) Catalytic – 5f in 1:00.72 (2/7) at GP on April 19. 

(17) T O Password – Will arrive at CD on April 26. 

(18) Endlessly – 5f in 1:00.80 (20/71) at CD on April 20. 

(19) Society Man – 4f in 48.20 (16/123) at CD on April 20.

(20) Grand Mo the First – 6f in 1:16.46 (2/2) at GP on April 23.