Saratoga 2023: Alabama Stakes analysis & video

The Grade 1 Alabama Stakes will be run at Saratoga on Saturday, August 19. A total of ten horses will line up in the starting gate and Wet Paint is the 2-1 morning line favorite. I will go through the projected race shape and look at the best final time ratings, and my video analysis is included at the bottom of this post. 

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Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga Race Course – August 19 – Race 9 – 1 1/4 miles dirt

1 – Sacred Wish (8-1)

2 – Wet Paint (2-1)

3 – Julia Shining (5-1)

4 – Sabra Tuff (30-1)

5 – Fireline (12-1)

6 – Chocolate Gelato (15-1)

7 – Gambling Girl (8-1)

8 – Randomized (9-2)

9 – Taxed (8-1)

10- Defining Purpose (10-1)

Today’s Racing Digest Pace Ratings – Most Representative Line

Randomized – 138 (Acorn)

Sacred Wish – 137 (GP Oaks)

Taxed – 131 (Honeybee)

Julia Shining – 129 (Suncoast)

Defining Purpose – 128 (Year’s End)

Chocolate Gelato – 125 (Frizette)

Fireline – 120 (Delaware Oaks)

Gambling Girl – 113 (CCAO)

Wet Paint – 107 (CCAO)

Sabra Tuff – 96 (Monomoy Girl)

Randomized figures to show the way early under Joel Rosario, or at least that seems to be her best path to success. Sacred Wish should work out a cozy stalking trip from the rail. Some other tactical spots are up for grabs. I would expect Defining Purpose to try to secure a forward position from the outside post. Julia Shining is fresh and might be a bit keen to go early. They would like her to be sitting in midpack with Taxed. Chocolate Gelato seems to be racing at the wrong distance. An early-pressing trip is likely under Jose Ortiz but I would be surprised if she was around at the end.  Gambling Girl and Wet Paint do their best running in the stretch.

Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings – Most Representative Line

Taxed – 143 (Black-Eyed Susan)

Defining Purpose – 140 (Indiana Oaks)

Gambling Girl – 140 (Ky Oaks)

Julia Shining – 138 (Ashland)

Wet Paint – 135 (CCAO)

Randomized – 135 (Wilton)

Sacred Wish – 134 (CCAO)

Chocolate Gelato – 125 (Frizette)

Fireline – 119 (Delaware Oaks)

Sabra Tuff – 104 (Monomoy Girl)

Taxed has been in fine form since removing blinkers three back. She can compete with these if she runs back to her Black-Eyed Susan victory. Defining Purpose earned quality numbers in the Ashland and Indiana Oaks, but she throws in below par efforts as well and has yet to run two alike. Gambling Girl needs to rediscover her Kentucky Oaks form. She was flat in her Coaching Club American Oaks return. Julia Shining has upside but can she uncork a new top at a mile and a quarter in her first start in more than four months? Wet Paint is a solid closer and should be finishing under her winning pilot Flavien Prat. Randomized probably needs to be loose on the lead to succeed in this spot. Sacred Wish could not hold off Wet Paint at a mile and an eight last time despite a perfect trip. I do not see her turning the tables on that rival.