2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Tiztastic

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 5

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 119

Total Earnings To Date: 1549800

Trainer: Steven Asmussen

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Tiztastic’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 22-Mar-25
Track: Fairgrounds
Race #: 12
Distance: 9.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 10
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $17
Place Payout: $7.2
Show Payout: $4.4

Race Recap Analysis:

Tiztastic’s victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 22, 2025, was a pivotal moment in his journey to the Kentucky Derby. Trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Joel Rosario, Tiztastic showcased his potential by winning the 1?-mile race in a time of 1:56.20. This performance earned him 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, solidifying his position in the starting gate for the 151st Kentucky Derby . In the Louisiana Derby, Tiztastic settled near the back of the 10-horse field as the leaders set a brisk pace. As the race progressed, he began to make up ground, saving ground along the rail before angling four wide into the stretch. With a powerful late surge, he passed his rivals to win by 2¼ lengths .? Tiztastic’s victory was a significant improvement over his previous performances. In earlier races, such as the Rebel Stakes and Southwest Stakes, he had shown promise but lacked the finishing kick needed to secure a win. The Louisiana Derby marked a turning point, where he demonstrated both tactical positioning and a strong late run .?

The question to ask is how did Tiztastic perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 1

Win Payout: $17

Place: Payout: $7.2

Show Payout: $4.4

 

Race Replay for Tiztastic – Fairgrounds – 22-Mar-25

 

Tiztastic’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Tiztastic Prep Race Race Class Level: 165

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Tiztastic’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Tiztastic’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Tiztastic is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Tiztastic’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 144

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Tiztastic is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Tiztastic’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 150

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Tiztastic’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 128

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 128

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Tiztastic’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 124

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 124

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Tiztastic’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 95

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Tiztastic’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Tiztastic’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Tiztastic may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Sired by Tiz the Law and out of the Tapit mare Keesha, Tiztastic possesses a pedigree that suggests he can handle the demands of the Kentucky Derby. His connections—trainer Steve Asmussen, who has trained 26 Derby starters, and jockey Joel Rosario, who won the Derby with Orb in 2013—bring valuable experience to his campaign. With his Louisiana Derby win, Tiztastic enters the Kentucky Derby as a contender. His ability to close from off the pace and handle longer distances will be assets in the 1¼-mile Derby. However, he will face strong competition from other top contenders. His performance in the Derby will depend on factors such as pace dynamics and race-day conditions.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Tiztastic’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: