2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Sovereignty

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 6

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 110

Total Earnings To Date: 572800

Trainer: William Mott

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Sovereignty’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 27-Oct-24
Track: CD
Race #: 10
Distance: 8.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: William Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 6
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $4.86
Place Payout: $3.06
Show Payout: $2.46

Race Recap Analysis:

In the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes, Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, started from the 10th post position. He broke slowly and found himself trailing the field early on. Racing 6 lengths off the pace at the 4-furlong mark, he began his rally around the far turn. With a wide move into the stretch, he surged past his rivals to win by a comfortable margin, stopping the clock at 1:43.75 for the 1 1/16-mile race. Notably, he defeated Tiztastic and Sandman, both of whom would go on to win major Derby preps later in the season. Sovereignty’s victory in the Street Sense Stakes was impressive, especially considering it was his first stakes appearance. His ability to close from off the pace demonstrated his potential as a late-running contender, a style that can be advantageous in the Kentucky Derby’s 20-horse field. The time of 1:43.75, while competitive, isn’t the fastest among Derby hopefuls, but it indicates he can handle the distance and the Churchill Downs surface.

The question to ask is how did Sovereignty perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 1

Win Payout: $4.86

Place: Payout: $3.06

Show Payout: $2.46

 

Race Replay for Sovereignty – CD – 27-Oct-24

 

Sovereignty’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Sovereignty Prep Race Race Class Level: 155

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Sovereignty’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Sovereignty’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Sovereignty is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Sovereignty’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 137

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Sovereignty is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Sovereignty’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 117

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Sovereignty’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 124

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 126

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Sovereignty’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 129

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 129

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Sovereignty’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 90

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Sovereignty’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Sovereignty’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Sovereignty may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Sovereignty is sired by Into Mischief, a stallion known for producing top-class runners, including 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. His dam, Crowned, by Bernardini, adds further stamina influence to his pedigree. Owned by Godolphin and trained by Bill Mott, Sovereignty benefits from a strong support team with a history of success in the Triple Crown races. Sovereignty’s win in the Street Sense Stakes positions him as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. His ability to close from off the pace is a valuable asset in a race where the pace can vary. However, the 20-horse field at Churchill Downs presents challenges, including potential traffic issues and a need for a favorable pace setup. His connections will need to ensure he continues to develop and adapt to the demands of the Derby trail.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Sovereignty’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: