2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Sandman

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 2

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 129

Total Earnings To Date: 1254595

Trainer: Mark Casse

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Sandman’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 29-Mar-25
Track: Oaklawn Park
Race #: 13
Distance: 9 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 0
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $9.4
Place Payout: $4
Show Payout: $2.8

Race Recap Analysis:

Sandman’s Arkansas Derby performance on March 29, 2025. He came from behind to win the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, clocking in at 1:50.08 for the 1 1/8-mile race. He was 4½ lengths ahead of third-place finisher Coal Battle, who had beaten him in the Rebel Stakes earlier in the season. This victory earned Sandman 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, bringing his total to 129, securing his spot in the Derby lineup. ?The Arkansas Derby unfolded with a fast early pace, set by Speed King and Cornucopian. Sandman, typically a deep closer, was positioned mid-pack early on. As the leaders began to tire, Sandman made his move, overtaking Publisher in the stretch and pulling away to win by 2½ lengths. His final time of 1:50.08 was impressive, especially considering the fast track conditions.

The question to ask is how did Sandman perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 1

Win Payout: $9.4

Place: Payout: $4

Show Payout: $2.8

 

Race Replay for Sandman – Oaklawn Park – 29-Mar-25

 

Sandman’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Sandman Prep Race Race Class Level: 165

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Sandman’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Sandman’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Sandman is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Sandman’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 146

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Sandman is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Sandman’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 125

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Sandman’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 130

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 128

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Sandman’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 134

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 134

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Sandman’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 106

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Sandman’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Sandman’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Sandman may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Sandman’s Arkansas Derby win positions him as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. His ability to close from off the pace is a valuable asset in the Derby, where early speed often fades. However, there are concerns. His tendency to lug in during races could pose challenges in the crowded Derby field. Additionally, while he has raced at Churchill Downs, his results there have been modest—two third-place finishes and a fifth-place finish. This raises questions about his affinity for the track, especially considering his sire Tapit’s 0-for-14 record in the Derby at Churchill Downs. Sandman’s Arkansas Derby performance was a strong indicator of his potential in the Kentucky Derby. His closing ability and recent form make him a contender to watch. However, the Derby presents a different set of challenges, and his ability to navigate traffic and handle the Churchill Downs surface will be critical to his success. If he can secure a clean trip, Sandman has the tools to make a significant impact in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Sandman’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: