Kentucky Derby Contenders
What Rodriguez’s Best Prep Race Can Tell You About Their Potential 2025 Kentucky Derby Performance
2025 Kentucky Derby Contender
Rodriguez
Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 4
Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 121.25
Total Earnings To Date: 522800
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Prep Race Breakdown: Rodriguez’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)
Race Date: 5-Apr-25
Track: AQU
Race #: 12
Distance: 9 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 14
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $9.3
Place Payout: $6.2
Show Payout: $5.3
Race Recap Analysis:
Rodriguez went off as the 7-2 second choice and didn’t disappoint. He broke from the rail and immediately took the lead, setting the pace. Captain Cook tried to challenge him early, but Rodriguez wasn’t having it. He held off the competition and powered home to win by 3½ lengths, stopping the clock at 1:48.15 for the 1?-mile race . Prior to the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez had a mixed record with a second-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis and a third in the San Felipe, both at Santa Anita . Rodriguezs early speed was evident in the Wood Memorial, where he set the pace and held off challengers. His front-running style could be advantageous in the Kentucky Derby, especially if he can establish a comfortable lead early on.
The question to ask is how did Rodriguez perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $9.3
Place: Payout: $6.2
Show Payout: $5.3
Race Replay for Rodriguez – AQU – 5-Apr-25
Rodriguez’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look
Race Class Levels (RCL)
Rodriguez Prep Race Race Class Level: 165
Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200
The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Rodriguez’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.
Check the Race Sheets for insights on Rodriguez’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Rodriguez is for the big stage.
Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)
Rodriguez’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 150
Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148
The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Rodriguez is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.
For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!
Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.
Pace Rating (PAC RAT)
Rodriguez’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 171
Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144
Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161
Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.
Fast Figs
Rodriguez’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 132
Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 128
Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140
Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132
Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133
Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.
Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)
Rodriguez’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 142
CPR Par For This Prep Race: 142
CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140
Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131
Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136
CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.
Final Race Equation (FIRE #)
Rodriguez’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 96
Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135
Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134
The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.
How Rodriguez’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success
Looking at the key performance metrics from Rodriguez’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Rodriguez may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.
The Kentucky Derby presents a different challenge with a larger field and potentially more pace pressure. Rodriguezs ability to handle the 1¼-mile distance and navigate through traffic will be crucial. Additionally, his performance in previous races suggests he may be more effective when leading, so hell need to adapt if other horses contest the early lead. Rodriguez has the early speed and pedigree to be a contender in the Kentucky Derby. However, the larger field and distance will test his adaptability. If he can establish a favorable position early and maintain his stamina, he could be a significant factor in the race.
Helpful Tip: To compare Rodriguez’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: