2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Render Judgment

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 20

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 39

Total Earnings To Date: 250672

Trainer: Kenneth McPeek

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Render Judgment’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 6-Oct-24
Track: Keeneland
Race #: 7
Distance: 7 Furlongs
Race Conditions: MSW
Surface: D
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
Jockey: Colby Hernandez
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 5
Finish Position: 2
Win Payout: $0
Place Payout: $25.24
Show Payout: $14.38

Race Recap Analysis:

Render Judgment, trained by Kenny McPeek, ran in the Maiden Special Weight race at Keeneland on October 6, 2024, over 7 furlongs. He finished in second place behind Built, a colt by Hard Spun. The race was highly competitive, with Render Judgment showing tactical speed as he stalked the pace throughout the race and made a bid in the stretch. However, Built was too strong, pulling away in the final furlong to secure the win. The race was run on a fast dirt track, and Render Judgment posted a time of 1:23.85. Looking ahead to the Kentucky Derby, Render Judgment’s prep race at Keeneland gives us some valuable insights into his potential. His ability to stalk the pace and make a move in the stretch is an asset, especially for the Derby’s long stretch. However, his FIRE Figures, which have been consistent but not exceptional, topping out at 83, suggest that he may need to improve to compete at the highest level. This indicates that while he has room for improvement, he might need a breakthrough performance to be a serious contender in the Derby.

The question to ask is how did Render Judgment perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 2

Win Payout: $0

Place: Payout: $25.24

Show Payout: $14.38

 

Race Replay for Render Judgment – Keeneland – 6-Oct-24

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Render Judgment’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Render Judgment Prep Race Race Class Level: 130

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Render Judgment’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Render Judgment’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Render Judgment is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Render Judgment’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 126

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Render Judgment is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Render Judgment’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 108

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Render Judgment’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 116

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 116

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Render Judgment’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 124

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 124

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Render Judgment’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 83

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Render Judgment’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Render Judgment’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Render Judgment may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Render Judgment has gained valuable experience by racing at various tracks, including Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds, Colonial, and Keeneland. This experience against quality competition will help him prepare for the Derby. Additionally, trainer Kenny McPeek, who won the Derby with Mystik Dan, has proven he knows how to prepare a horse for such a prestigious race, which bodes well for Render Judgment’s chances. While his performance at Keeneland showed promise, it also highlighted areas where he can improve. His stalking style and the experience he’s accumulated so far are definite assets. However, his speed figures will need to improve if he is to challenge the top contenders in the Kentucky Derby. As of now, Render Judgment appears to be more of a longshot, but with the right adjustments and preparation, he could surprise in the Derby. His journey is still unfolding, and he certainly has the potential to make an impact with the right circumstances.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Render Judgment’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: