2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Publisher

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 15

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 60

Total Earnings To Date: 407756

Trainer: Steven Asmussen

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Publisher’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 29-Mar-25
Track: Oaklawn Park
Race #: 13
Distance: 9 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 0
Finish Position: 2
Win Payout: $0
Place Payout: $6.2
Show Payout: $3.8

Race Recap Analysis:

Publisher’s performance in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 29, 2025, at Oaklawn Park was a notable step forward in his development, even though he remains winless in his career. Ridden by Flavien Prat, Publisher secured second place in a competitive nine-horse field, finishing with a time of 1:50.08 over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track . This effort earned him 40 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, bringing his total to 70 points, which comfortably secured his spot in the Derby field

The question to ask is how did Publisher perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 2

Win Payout: $0

Place: Payout: $6.2

Show Payout: $3.8

 

Race Replay for Publisher – Oaklawn Park – 29-Mar-25

 

Publisher’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Publisher Prep Race Race Class Level: 165

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Publisher’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Publisher’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Publisher is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Publisher’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 138

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Publisher is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Publisher’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 111

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Publisher’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 124

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 128

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Publisher’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 134

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 134

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Publisher’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 104

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Publisher’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Publisher’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Publisher may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Despite his consistent placings, Publisher has yet to secure a victory in seven starts, which raises questions about his ability to handle the pressure of a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. His late-running style, while effective in smaller fields, may be less advantageous in a crowded Derby lineup. Trainer Steven Asmussen’s experience and Publisher’s solid performances in graded stakes races indicate that he has the potential to be a competitive contender in the Kentucky Derby. However, his lack of a win and the challenges posed by his running style in a large field suggest that while he may be a factor in the race, securing a victory would be a significant achievement.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Publisher’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: