2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Owen Almighty

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 13

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 65

Total Earnings To Date: 499935

Trainer: Brian Lynch

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Owen Almighty’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 8-Feb-25
Track: Tampa Bay Downs
Race #: 11
Distance: 8.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 13
Finish Position: 2
Win Payout: $0
Place Payout: $3.8
Show Payout: $2.8

Race Recap Analysis:

Owen Almighty ran in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on February 8, 2025, finishing second to John Hancock. He completed the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:42.16, demonstrating his ability to handle two turns and compete in a larger field. However, his inability to hold off John Hancock in the stretch suggests he may struggle against elite closers.

The question to ask is how did Owen Almighty perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 2

Win Payout: $0

Place: Payout: $3.8

Show Payout: $2.8

 

Race Replay for Owen Almighty – Tampa Bay Downs – 8-Feb-25

 

Owen Almighty’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Owen Almighty Prep Race Race Class Level: 155

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Owen Almighty’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Owen Almighty’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Owen Almighty is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Owen Almighty’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 155

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Owen Almighty is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Owen Almighty’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 185

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Owen Almighty’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 136

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 126

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Owen Almighty’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 132

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 132

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Owen Almighty’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 102

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Owen Almighty’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Owen Almighty’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Owen Almighty may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

In the Kentucky Derby, the pace is often fast, and the field is large, which could benefit Owen Almighty’s front-running style. However, his stamina limitations, as indicated by his fading in the Blue Grass Stakes, may hinder his ability to maintain his speed over the longer distance. His performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes suggests he has potential, but his ability to handle the challenges of the Kentucky Derby remains uncertain.? while Owen Almighty’s Sam F. Davis Stakes run was commendable, his stamina concerns and the competitive nature of the Kentucky Derby field make him a questionable contender. His front-running style could be advantageous if he gets a clean lead, but his ability to sustain that lead over the longer distance is in doubt.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Owen Almighty’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: