2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Neoequos

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 19

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 40

Total Earnings To Date: 291050

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Neoequos’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 19-Oct-24
Track: Gulfstream Park
Race #: 8
Distance: 7 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 4
Finish Position: 2
Win Payout: $0
Place Payout: $3.2
Show Payout: $2.1

Race Recap Analysis:

Neoequos ran in the FTBOA Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes on October 19, 2024, at Gulfstream Park, finishing in second place. The race was run over 7 furlongs on a fast dirt track, and Neoequos posted a time of 1:22.77. Throughout the race, he stalked the leader, Rated by Merit, maintaining a close second position. Neoequos made a bid for the lead but couldn’t quite get past the front-runner, finishing just behind in second. His effort was strong, but his time was not the fastest in the field, though still respectable for the distance. Neoequos showed good tactical speed by staying within striking distance of the leader. His positioning suggested that he has the ability to handle the early pace of a race, which is an asset, especially for races that tend to have a fast tempo. However, while his performance at 7 furlongs was solid, the Kentucky Derby will be a different challenge. The Derby is contested over 10 furlongs, and Neoequos has yet to prove that he can maintain his speed over such a longer distance. The race at Gulfstream was a shorter sprint, and stamina could be a question as the Derby demands a higher level of endurance.

The question to ask is how did Neoequos perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 2

Win Payout: $0

Place: Payout: $3.2

Show Payout: $2.1

 

Race Replay for Neoequos – Gulfstream Park – 19-Oct-24

 

Neoequos’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Neoequos Prep Race Race Class Level: 140

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Neoequos’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Neoequos’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Neoequos is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Neoequos’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 132

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Neoequos is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Neoequos’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 140

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Neoequos’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 120

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: N/A

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Neoequos’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 142

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 142

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Neoequos’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 90

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Neoequos’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Neoequos’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Neoequos may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

The competition in the Affirmed Stakes was somewhat limited, with only six horses in the field, while the Kentucky Derby features a much larger and more competitive group of runners. This difference in field size and depth of competition means Neoequos will face tougher challenges in the Derby, and his adaptability to that environment will be tested. Although his second-place finish in the Affirmed Stakes was a positive performance, Neoequos’ ability to handle the longer distance of the Kentucky Derby remains uncertain. His tactical speed is an advantage, but he will need to prove that he can maintain that form over 10 furlongs. The transition from sprint distances to classic distances is significant, and it remains to be seen if he can adapt. With a larger field and tougher competition, Neoequos will need to demonstrate that he can hold his own in the Kentucky Derby. His chances will depend on whether he can stretch out his stamina and rise to the occasion against some of the best horses in the country.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Neoequos’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: