Kentucky Derby Contenders

What Luxor Cafe’s Best Prep Race Can Tell You About Their Potential 2025 Kentucky Derby Performance

2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

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Luxor Cafe

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 12

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 70

Total Earnings To Date: 128341

Trainer: Noriyuki Hori

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Luxor Cafe’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 3-May-25
Track: NA
Race #: NA
Distance: NA Furlongs
Race Conditions: NA
Surface: NA
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Track Condition: N/A
Track Variant: N/A
Finish Position: NA
Win Payout: $N/A
Place Payout: $N/A
Show Payout: $N/A

Race Recap Analysis:

Luxor Cafe ran a strong prep race in the Fukuryu Stakes on March 29, 2025, at Nakayama, winning by 5 lengths with a time of 1:52.1. He broke sharply, settled mid-pack, and made a strong move on the far turn, pulling away easily in the stretch. The track was reported as “good or slightly heavy,” and Luxor Cafe handled the conditions without issue. One of Luxor Cafe’s key strengths is his pedigree. He is sired by the legendary American Pharoah, which suggests he has the stamina to handle the 1¼-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. He also has a versatile running style, able to race either close to the pace or from mid-pack, providing him with tactical flexibility in a large field like the Derby. Another positive is his adaptability to different track conditions, as he has shown that he can perform on muddy and varying surfaces.

The question to ask is how did Luxor Cafe perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: NA

Win Payout: $N/A

Place: Payout: $N/A

Show Payout: $N/A

 

Race Replay for Luxor Cafe – NA – 3-May-25

unavailable

 

Luxor Cafe’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Luxor Cafe Prep Race Race Class Level: NA

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Luxor Cafe’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Luxor Cafe’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Luxor Cafe is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Luxor Cafe’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: N/A

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Luxor Cafe is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Luxor Cafe’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: N/A

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Luxor Cafe’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: N/A

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: N/A

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Luxor Cafe’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: N/A

CPR Par For This Prep Race: N/A

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Luxor Cafe’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: N/A

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Luxor Cafe’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Luxor Cafe’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Luxor Cafe may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

This will be Luxor Cafe’s first time racing outside Japan, and the Churchill Downs environment will be a different challenge. The U.S. racing scene, with its large, competitive fields, may require some adjustment. Additionally, his starting position in Post Position 7 could present some difficulties. Being inside could expose him to more kickback and traffic, especially in a crowded 20-horse field. Looking ahead to the Kentucky Derby, Luxor Cafe has the talent to be a serious contender. His prep race shows that he’s in top form, and his pedigree supports his ability to handle the distance. However, his lack of U.S. experience and the challenges of a large, competitive field in the Derby could pose difficulties. He will need a clean trip and to handle the pressure of such a big race in order to be a factor in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Luxor Cafe’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: