2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Journalism

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 3

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 122.5

Total Earnings To Date: 638880

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Journalism’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 1-Mar-25
Track: Santa Anita
Race #: 8
Distance: 8.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 7
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $8.2
Place Payout: $2.8
Show Payout: $2.1

Race Recap Analysis:

On March 1, 2025, Journalism delivered a standout performance in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park, finishing first by 1¼ lengths. Ridden by jockey Umberto Rispoli and trained by Michael W. McCarthy, Journalism completed the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:42.08, marking his fastest time at that distance to date. In the race, Journalism exhibited tactical versatility. He initially raced inside, then maneuvered three-wide on the second turn to take control in the stretch. This adaptability is crucial for the Kentucky Derby, where post positions and race dynamics can vary .?

The question to ask is how did Journalism perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 1

Win Payout: $8.2

Place: Payout: $2.8

Show Payout: $2.1

 

Race Replay for Journalism – Santa Anita – 1-Mar-25

 

Journalism’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Journalism Prep Race Race Class Level: 165

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Journalism’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Journalism’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Journalism is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Journalism’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 147

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Journalism is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Journalism’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 119

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Journalism’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 130

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 128

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Journalism’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 140

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 140

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Journalism’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 96

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Journalism’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Journalism’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Journalism may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

The San Felipe Stakes is a key prep race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, offering valuable points for qualification. Journalism’s victory not only earned him a significant number of points but also demonstrated his readiness for the challenges of the Derby. Looking ahead, Journalism’s performance in the San Felipe Stakes positions him as a strong contender for the Kentucky Derby. His ability to adapt to different race scenarios and his consistent improvement in race times suggest he is peaking at the right time. With continued training and preparation, Journalism has the potential to make a significant impact in the Derby.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Journalism’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: