Kentucky Derby Contenders
What Flying Mohawk’s Best Prep Race Can Tell You About Their Potential 2025 Kentucky Derby Performance
2025 Kentucky Derby Contender
Flying Mohawk
Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 17
Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 50
Total Earnings To Date: 295800
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Prep Race Breakdown: Flying Mohawk’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)
Race Date: 30-Jan-25
Track: Fairgrounds
Race #: 8
Distance: 8.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: AOC
Surface: T
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Track Condition: FM
Track Variant: 0
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $5.8
Place Payout: $3
Show Payout: $2.2
Race Recap Analysis:
Flying Mohawk ran in Race 8 at Fair Grounds on January 30, 2025, a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claiming race on firm turf. Despite a bobble at the start, which briefly affected his positioning, he managed to recover quickly and settle in before making a bold move. His move between horses at the 1/8 pole, going 4-wide, was a confident tactical maneuver, demonstrating his adaptability and strong racing instincts. He surged late to win by 1 length, posting a time of 1:46.16. This performance highlighted his finishing kick and his ability to close strongly under pressure. Looking ahead to the Kentucky Derby, this prep race provides several insights into his potential. Although the Derby is run on dirt, Flying Mohawks strong turf performance shows that he possesses the stamina and closing ability necessary for a longer race. His ability to recover after a difficult start and make a decisive move suggests that he could handle the challenges of the Kentucky Derby, particularly in terms of distance and the ability to handle a crowded field. However, the transition from turf to dirt remains a significant factor to consider. While some horses make the switch seamlessly, others may struggle with the change in surface.
The question to ask is how did Flying Mohawk perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $5.8
Place: Payout: $3
Show Payout: $2.2
Race Replay for Flying Mohawk – Fairgrounds – 30-Jan-25
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Flying Mohawk’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look
Race Class Levels (RCL)
Flying Mohawk Prep Race Race Class Level: 140
Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200
The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Flying Mohawk’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.
Check the Race Sheets for insights on Flying Mohawk’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Flying Mohawk is for the big stage.
Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)
Flying Mohawk’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 137
Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148
The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Flying Mohawk is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.
For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!
Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.
Pace Rating (PAC RAT)
Flying Mohawk’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 119
Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144
Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161
Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.
Fast Figs
Flying Mohawk’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 124
Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 120
Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140
Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132
Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133
Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.
Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)
Flying Mohawk’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 131
CPR Par For This Prep Race: 131
CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140
Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131
Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136
CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.
Final Race Equation (FIRE #)
Flying Mohawk’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 93
Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135
Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134
The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.
How Flying Mohawk’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success
Looking at the key performance metrics from Flying Mohawk’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Flying Mohawk may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.
Flying Mohawks pedigree, heavily influenced by turf bloodlines, raises questions about his dirt performance. His sire, Karakontie, was a top turf runner, so while Flying Mohawks ability on turf is proven, it is still uncertain how he will perform on dirt. While Flying Mohawks win at Fair Grounds shows that he has the potential to be a strong contender, the transition to the dirt surface for the Kentucky Derby will be crucial. His trainer, Whit Beckman, has expressed confidence in the colts development, but it remains to be seen whether his turf form will translate to success on dirt in the Derby.
Helpful Tip: To compare Flying Mohawk’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: