Kentucky Derby Contenders
What East Avenue’s Best Prep Race Can Tell You About Their Potential 2025 Kentucky Derby Performance
2025 Kentucky Derby Contender
East Avenue
Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 14
Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 60
Total Earnings To Date: 654395
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Prep Race Breakdown: East Avenue’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)
Race Date: 5-Oct-24
Track: Keeneland
Race #: 9
Distance: 8.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 15
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $7.56
Place Payout: $3.72
Show Payout: $3.36
Race Recap Analysis:
East Avenue had a commanding victory in the 2024 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on October 5, 2024. He led the race from start to finish, securing a 5¼-length win in a time of 1:43.17 for the 1 1/16-mile distance. He maintained a comfortable lead after six furlongs, with Ferocious finishing second and Filoso coming in third. His performance was impressive, as he showed no signs of slowing down, finishing the final eighth of a mile in 12.95 seconds. This suggests that East Avenue still had plenty of energy left in the tank as he crossed the finish line. East Avenue’s pedigree also bodes well for his Kentucky Derby chances. Sired by Medaglia d’Oro and out of Dance Music, a daughter of Ghostzapper, he has the stamina and speed qualities needed for the classic distances. Medaglia d’Oros offspring have consistently performed well at longer distances, and Ghostzapper’s influence provides added speed and versatility, making East Avenue a strong candidate for the Kentucky Derbys 1¼-mile race.
The question to ask is how did East Avenue perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $7.56
Place: Payout: $3.72
Show Payout: $3.36
Race Replay for East Avenue – Keeneland – 5-Oct-24
East Avenue’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look
Race Class Levels (RCL)
East Avenue Prep Race Race Class Level: 160
Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200
The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of East Avenue’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.
Check the Race Sheets for insights on East Avenue’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready East Avenue is for the big stage.
Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)
East Avenue’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 143
Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148
The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well East Avenue is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.
For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!
Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.
Pace Rating (PAC RAT)
East Avenue’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 162
Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144
Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161
Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.
Fast Figs
East Avenue’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 128
Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 126
Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140
Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132
Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133
Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.
Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)
East Avenue’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 123
CPR Par For This Prep Race: 123
CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140
Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131
Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136
CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.
Final Race Equation (FIRE #)
East Avenue’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 94
Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135
Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134
The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.
How East Avenue’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success
Looking at the key performance metrics from East Avenue’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well East Avenue may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.
With 10 qualifying points from the Breeders’ Futurity, East Avenue has made a solid start on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. His front-running style could be an advantage in the large field of the Derby, but he will need to improve his speed figures to compete with the top contenders. His pedigree suggests he can handle the Derby distance, but the challenge of navigating a 20-horse field is something hell need to adjust to. Overall, East Avenues performance in the Breeders’ Futurity was a promising step forward. While he has the potential, he will need to continue improving to be a serious threat in the Kentucky Derby. His win in the Breeders’ Futurity proves that he has the talent to compete at a high level, and if he can step up his performance, he could be a strong contender when the Derby rolls around.
Helpful Tip: To compare East Avenue’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: