Kentucky Derby Contenders
What Coal Battle’s Best Prep Race Can Tell You About Their Potential 2025 Kentucky Derby Performance
2025 Kentucky Derby Contender
Coal Battle
Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 9
Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 95
Total Earnings To Date: 1188875
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Prep Race Breakdown: Coal Battle’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)
Race Date: 23-Feb-25
Track: Oaklawn Park
Race #: 11
Distance: 8.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 16
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $25.8
Place Payout: $12
Show Payout: $6.4
Race Recap Analysis:
Coal Battle had an impressive performance in the 2025 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on February 23, 2025. The race, a Grade 2 event covering 1 1/16 miles, saw Coal Battle emerge victorious with a final time of 1:43.01, winning by 1¼ lengths. He broke from the inside post, settled into a mid-pack position early on, and made a powerful move in the stretch to take the lead. Madaket Road finished second, while Sandman came in third. The pace of the race was moderate, which set up well for Coal Battle to make his late charge. His ability to navigate through traffic and accelerate in the final furlong highlighted his tactical versatility. The winning time of 1:43.01 for 1 1/16 miles indicates a solid and competitive performance. Jockey Juan Vargas gave Coal Battle a confident ride, positioning him well and timing the move to the front perfectly. Trainer Lonnie Briley, in his 72nd year, celebrated his first graded-stakes win with this victory, marking a significant milestone in his career.
The question to ask is how did Coal Battle perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $25.8
Place: Payout: $12
Show Payout: $6.4
Race Replay for Coal Battle – Oaklawn Park – 23-Feb-25
Coal Battle’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look
Race Class Levels (RCL)
Coal Battle Prep Race Race Class Level: 165
Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200
The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Coal Battle’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.
Check the Race Sheets for insights on Coal Battle’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Coal Battle is for the big stage.
Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)
Coal Battle’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 137
Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148
The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Coal Battle is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.
For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!
Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.
Pace Rating (PAC RAT)
Coal Battle’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 150
Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144
Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161
Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.
Fast Figs
Coal Battle’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 124
Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 128
Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140
Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132
Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133
Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.
Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)
Coal Battle’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 111
CPR Par For This Prep Race: 111
CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140
Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131
Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136
CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.
Final Race Equation (FIRE #)
Coal Battle’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 92
Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135
Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134
The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.
How Coal Battle’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success
Looking at the key performance metrics from Coal Battle’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Coal Battle may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.
Coal Battle is sired by Coal Front, a multiple graded-stakes winner, and his dam, Wolfblade, is by Midshipman. The combination of Coal Fronts success at middle distances and Midshipmans sprinting pedigree suggests that Coal Battle has the potential to handle the 1¼-mile Kentucky Derby distance, although questions about his stamina may arise. With 50 qualifying points from the Rebel Stakes, Coal Battle has secured a spot in the Kentucky Derby. His ability to adapt to different race dynamics and win from varying positions makes him a strong contender in a 20-horse field. However, the longer Derby distance and large field will present challenges, and he will need to improve his speed figures and have a favorable trip to be competitive on the first Saturday in May. Coal Battles Rebel Stakes victory showcased his versatility and determination. While questions about his stamina remain, his ability to adjust to different race scenarios makes him a horse to watch on the Derby trail. With continued improvement and some luck, he could be a serious contender in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Helpful Tip: To compare Coal Battle’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: