2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Citizen Bull

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 11

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 71.25

Total Earnings To Date: 1451000

Trainer: Bob Baffert

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Citizen Bull’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 5-Oct-24
Track: Santa Anita
Race #: 9
Distance: 8.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: -4
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $8.6
Place Payout: $3.6
Show Payout: $2.4

Race Recap Analysis:

Citizen Bull ran in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita on October 5, 2024, where he showcased his front-running ability by taking the lead early and holding it throughout the race. He finished the 1?-mile race in 1:44.30, securing a two-length victory over his stablemate, Getaway Car. This win earned him 10 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. In terms of strengths, Citizen Bull demonstrated his ability to dictate the pace, which will be an important asset in the Kentucky Derby, where the ability to control the race early on can be crucial in a 20-horse field. Additionally, with a pedigree that includes Into Mischief and the expertise of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, Citizen Bull has the breeding and connections to back him up.

The question to ask is how did Citizen Bull perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 1

Win Payout: $8.6

Place: Payout: $3.6

Show Payout: $2.4

 

Race Replay for Citizen Bull – Santa Anita – 5-Oct-24

 

Citizen Bull’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Citizen Bull Prep Race Race Class Level: 160

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Citizen Bull’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Citizen Bull’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Citizen Bull is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Citizen Bull’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 149

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Citizen Bull is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Citizen Bull’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 123

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Citizen Bull’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 132

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 126

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Citizen Bull’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 147

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 147

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Citizen Bull’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 97

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Citizen Bull’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Citizen Bull’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Citizen Bull may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Although he won the American Pharoah on dirt, Citizen Bull’s previous races were on synthetic surfaces, so his ability to adapt to various track conditions in the Derby is still in question. Furthermore, while he was able to outpace his competition in the American Pharoah, the Kentucky Derby will feature a much larger and more competitive field, which could challenge his front-running strategy. While Citizen Bull’s victory in the American Pharoah Stakes shows promise, particularly with his front-running ability and strong connections, his adaptability to different track surfaces and how he fares against a larger and more competitive Derby field will be key to his success in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Citizen Bull’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: