2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Chunk of Gold

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 10

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 75

Total Earnings To Date: 348818

Trainer: Ethan West

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Chunk of Gold’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 22-Mar-25
Track: Fairgrounds
Race #: 12
Distance: 9.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Ethan West
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 10
Finish Position: 2
Win Payout: $0
Place Payout: $8.4
Show Payout: $5.2

Race Recap Analysis:

Chunk of Gold broke from post 2 and settled into a stalking position along the rail. The race unfolded at a quick pace, with the leaders posting fractions of 46.84 seconds for the first half-mile. As they approached the final turn, Chunk of Gold began to make his move, but Tiztastic, rallying from off the pace, overtook him in the stretch. Despite this, Chunk of Gold held on for second, finishing 1¾ lengths behind the winner. This race was a significant step forward for Chunk of Gold. It marked his second start on dirt and his first attempt at a longer distance. His ability to navigate a fast pace and still finish strong indicates a promising future, especially considering the Kentucky Derby’s challenging 20-horse field. His Pace Rating of 167 in the Louisiana Derby is competitive, though he’ll need to improve to contend with the top contenders in the Derby.

The question to ask is how did Chunk of Gold perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 2

Win Payout: $0

Place: Payout: $8.4

Show Payout: $5.2

 

Race Replay for Chunk of Gold – Fairgrounds – 22-Mar-25

 

Chunk of Gold’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Chunk of Gold Prep Race Race Class Level: 165

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Chunk of Gold’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Chunk of Gold’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Chunk of Gold is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Chunk of Gold’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 137

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Chunk of Gold is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Chunk of Gold’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 167

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Chunk of Gold’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 124

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 128

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Chunk of Gold’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 124

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 124

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Chunk of Gold’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 90

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Chunk of Gold’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Chunk of Gold’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Chunk of Gold may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Sired by Preservationist (son of Arch) and out of Play for Gold (by Cairo Prince), Chunk of Gold has a pedigree that suggests he can handle the classic distances of the Kentucky Derby. Preservationist’s stamina and Arch’s influence are notable, while Cairo Prince adds a blend of speed and endurance. With 75 qualifying points, Chunk of Gold has secured a spot in the Kentucky Derby. His late-running style could be advantageous in a large field, provided he gets a clean trip. However, he’ll need to improve his speed figures to compete with the likes of Journalism, Citizen Bull, and Rodriguez, who have posted higher numbers. Chunk of Gold’s journey from a $2,500 purchase to a Kentucky Derby contender is remarkable. While he faces a tough challenge ahead, his progression and pedigree suggest he could be a wildcard in the Derby. If he continues to improve and gets the right trip, don’t be surprised if he makes some noise on the first Saturday in May.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Chunk of Gold’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: