2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Burnham Square

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 1

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 130

Total Earnings To Date: 977755

Trainer: Ian Wilkes

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Burnham Square’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 1-Feb-25
Track: Gulfstream Park
Race #: 11
Distance: 8.5 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Edgard Zayas
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 8
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $10.6
Place Payout: $4.2
Show Payout: $3

Race Recap Analysis:

Burnham Square’s performance in the Holy Bull Stakes on February 1, 2025, at Gulfstream Park showed both his resilience and adaptability, traits that will be essential in the Kentucky Derby. The race didn’t start ideally for him—he broke slowly and was bumped early on—but he managed to recover and rally from the back of the pack. Despite the rough start, he finished strong, securing a 1¾-length victory over Tappan Street. The race was completed in 1:43.60 for 1 1/16 miles, showcasing his ability to navigate a competitive field despite the challenges he faced early on. What stands out most in Burnham Square’s performance is his tactical versatility. Although he started off slowly and encountered a few setbacks, he was able to make a strong comeback, which suggests that he can handle adversity in a race. This is particularly important for a race as unpredictable as the Kentucky Derby, where horses often face varying paces and race dynamics. Moreover, Burnham Square demonstrated solid stamina and grit in his victory, traits that will help him in the longer, more demanding Kentucky Derby, which is contested at a distance of 1¼ miles.

The question to ask is how did Burnham Square perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 1

Win Payout: $10.6

Place: Payout: $4.2

Show Payout: $3

 

Race Replay for Burnham Square – Gulfstream Park – 1-Feb-25

 

Burnham Square’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Burnham Square Prep Race Race Class Level: 160

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Burnham Square’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Burnham Square’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Burnham Square is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Burnham Square’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 149

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Burnham Square is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Burnham Square’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 140

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Burnham Square’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 132

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 126

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Burnham Square’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 139

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 139

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Burnham Square’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 98

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Burnham Square’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Burnham Square’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Burnham Square may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Burnham Square’s victory in the Holy Bull Stakes earned him 20 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, positioning him among the top contenders on the points leaderboard. Winning a graded stakes race like the Holy Bull also indicates that he has the class and capability to compete at the highest level, making him a serious Kentucky Derby hopeful. His pedigree, sired by Liam’s Map and out of a Scat Daddy mare, is well-suited to the demands of the Derby’s distance, further solidifying his credentials. The experience gained in such a competitive race at Gulfstream Park will be invaluable for Burnham Square, as he has shown he can perform under pressure. However, the Kentucky Derby will present new challenges, particularly in terms of post position and race pace. Burnham Square is a deep closer, meaning that a favorable post position will be crucial for him to avoid traffic and have a clear run. Additionally, the pace of the race could influence his chances; a fast early pace would suit his closing style, but a slow pace might put him at a disadvantage. Burnham Square’s victory in the Holy Bull Stakes demonstrates that he has the potential to be a serious Kentucky Derby contender. His ability to overcome adversity, along with his strong pedigree and experience in graded stakes, places him in a good position for the Derby. That said, factors like his post position draw and the race’s pace will play a significant role in determining how he fares on Derby day.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Burnham Square’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: