2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Baeza

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 21

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 37.5

Total Earnings To Date: 148500

Trainer: John Shirreffs

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Baeza’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 5-Apr-25
Track: Santa Anita
Race #: 10
Distance: 9 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Hector Berrios
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 1
Finish Position: 2
Win Payout: $0
Place Payout: $6.2
Show Payout: $3.6

Race Recap Analysis:

Baeza, trained by John Shirreffs, competed in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 5, 2025, finishing a strong second behind Journalism. The race, contested over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track, featured a field of five three-year-olds and offered 75 qualifying points to the top five finishers due to the reduced number of starters . Baeza’s performance was marked by a slight bobble at the start, causing him to trail into the first turn. However, he made a significant move around the far turn, advancing four wide to challenge the leaders. In the stretch, he briefly held the lead but was ultimately overtaken by Journalism, who surged past to secure the victory .

The question to ask is how did Baeza perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 2

Win Payout: $0

Place: Payout: $6.2

Show Payout: $3.6

 

Race Replay for Baeza – Santa Anita – 5-Apr-25

 

Baeza’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Baeza Prep Race Race Class Level: 170

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Baeza’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Baeza’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Baeza is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Baeza’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 143

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Baeza is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Baeza’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 143

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Baeza’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 128

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 130

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Baeza’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 147

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 147

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Baeza’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 94

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Baeza’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Baeza’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Baeza may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Despite his commendable effort, Baeza’s second-place finish earned him 37.5 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. However, due to the limited number of starters in the Santa Anita Derby, the points were reduced by 25%, affecting his position on the leaderboard . As of April 29, 2025, Baeza is on the also-eligible list for the Kentucky Derby, meaning he would need another horse to be scratched before the race to secure a spot in the field .? Trainer John Shirreffs remains hopeful, emphasizing that while the situation is uncertain, the opportunity to compete in the Derby would be a significant achievement for Baeza and his connections .? Baeza’s performance in the Santa Anita Derby demonstrated his competitive spirit and potential, though his current status as also-eligible leaves his participation in the Kentucky Derby contingent on future developments.?

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Baeza’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: